Stranger Apologies

A majority didn't vote for a liberal nightmare

On misperceiving the other side

Nov 25, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

82

26

21

No, post-election punditry isn't hindsight bias

Let the pundits be pundits

Nov 11, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

21

8

August 2024

Ambiguity Drives Hindsight Bias

New experimental evidence

Aug 17, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

9

1

July 2024

Only Fools Avoid Hindsight Bias

Why news usually provides evidence that you expected it

Jul 20, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

17

15

4

May 2024

The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 2: Social Media)

Why social media makes us sad.

May 18, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

11

10

4

The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 1)

Why public discourse should be negative even when things are going well

May 11, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

30

21

6

April 2024

Centrists are (probably) less biased

Why we should expect those in the middle to be more sensitive to evidence

Apr 6, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

14

2

3

February 2024

Ideological Bayesians

Why limits on attention can lead reasonable people into bias and polarization.

Feb 24, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

24

20

3

January 2024

Representativeness is Rational When Memory is Limited

It makes sense to prioritize remembering stereotypical outcomes

Jan 27, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

2

3

4

Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy

And they do so in ways that match well-known empirical effects

Jan 6, 2024 • 

Kevin Dorst

9

4

1

December 2023

In Defense of Epistemic Empathy

Knocking down the standard reasons for thinking that your opponents are dumb.

Dec 16, 2023 • 

Kevin Dorst

16

10

4

October 2023

Bayesian Injustice

Why rational people often replicate unfairness

Oct 21, 2023 • 

Kevin Dorst

9

14

4