Stranger Apologies

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Polarization is Not (Standard) Bayesian
Why most rational theories are missing the crux of the issue.
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Kevin Dorst
4
August 2023
ChatGPT undermines the case for human irrationality
It makes the same "errors" as humans—suggesting that they may be symptomatic of optimized domain-general reasoning.
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Kevin Dorst
9
July 2023
Rationalization Maximizes Expected Value
Why what you want should depend on what you get
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Kevin Dorst
Is the Endowment Effect Due to Incomparability?
Why vagueness in value leads to reluctance to trade
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Kevin Dorst
June 2023
A Subtle Selection Effect in Overconfidence Studies
Asking for confidence-intervals selects for the opinions that are most likely to be overestimated.
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Kevin Dorst
The Case for Overconfidence is Overstated
Much “overconfidence” can be explained by an accuracy-informativity tradeoff
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Kevin Dorst
4
Rational Bayesians Don’t Converge to the Truth
Why small memory lapses add up
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Kevin Dorst
3
Stranger Apologies
A blog about why people are more rational than you think
 • 
Kevin Dorst
4
April 2021
October 2020
Why Arguments Polarize Us
(1400 words; 7 minute read.) The most important factor that drove Becca and me apart, politically, is that we went our separate ways, socially. I went…
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Kevin Dorst
Confirmation Bias Maximizes Expected Accuracy
(1700 words; 8 minute read.) ​It’s September 21, 2020. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has just died. Republicans are moving to fill her seat; Democrats are…
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Kevin Dorst
Rational Polarization Can Be Profound, Persistent, and Predictable
(2000 words; 9 minute read.) So far, I’ve laid the foundations for a story of rational polarization. I’ve argued that we have reason to explain…
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Kevin Dorst
© 2023 Kevin Dorst
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