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Only Fools Avoid Hindsight Bias
Why news usually provides evidence that you expected it
 • 
Kevin Dorst
11

May 2024

The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 2: Social Media)
Why social media makes us sad.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
9
The Natural Selection of Bad Vibes (Part 1)
Why public discourse should be negative even when things are going well
 • 
Kevin Dorst
20

April 2024

Centrists are (probably) less biased
Why we should expect those in the middle to be more sensitive to evidence
 • 
Kevin Dorst
2

February 2024

Ideological Bayesians
Why limits on attention can lead reasonable people into bias and polarization.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
16

January 2024

Representativeness is Rational When Memory is Limited
It makes sense to prioritize remembering stereotypical outcomes
 • 
Kevin Dorst
3
Bayesians Commit the Gambler's Fallacy
And they do so in ways that match well-known empirical effects
 • 
Kevin Dorst
4

December 2023

In Defense of Epistemic Empathy
Knocking down the standard reasons for thinking that your opponents are dumb.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
10

October 2023

Bayesian Injustice
Why rational people often replicate unfairness
 • 
Kevin Dorst
14

September 2023

Polarization is Not (Standard) Bayesian
Why most rational theories are missing the crux of the issue.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
4

August 2023

ChatGPT undermines the case for human irrationality
It makes the same "errors" as humans—suggesting that they may be symptomatic of optimized domain-general reasoning.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
9

July 2023

Rationalization Maximizes Expected Value
Why what you want should depend on what you get
 • 
Kevin Dorst
© 2024 Kevin Dorst
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