Stranger Apologies

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Stranger Apologies
A blog about why people are more rational than you think
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Kevin Dorst
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Polarization is Not (Standard) Bayesian
Why most rational theories are missing the crux of the issue.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
4
ChatGPT undermines the case for human irrationality
It makes the same "errors" as humans—suggesting that they may be symptomatic of optimized domain-general reasoning.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
9
Rationalization Maximizes Expected Value
Why what you want should depend on what you get
 • 
Kevin Dorst
Is the Endowment Effect Due to Incomparability?
Why vagueness in value leads to reluctance to trade
 • 
Kevin Dorst
A Subtle Selection Effect in Overconfidence Studies
Asking for confidence-intervals selects for the opinions that are most likely to be overestimated.
 • 
Kevin Dorst
The Case for Overconfidence is Overstated
Much “overconfidence” can be explained by an accuracy-informativity tradeoff
 • 
Kevin Dorst
4
Rational Bayesians Don’t Converge to the Truth
Why small memory lapses add up
 • 
Kevin Dorst
3
Stranger Apologies
Stranger Apologies
Philosopher at MIT, trying to convince people that their opponents are more reasonable than they think.
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