Quick clarification question that i think is already addressed in the post but I'm being lazy. How much of this depends on resource--in particular, memory--limitations? Seems to me like even with perfect memory, causal uncertainty and limited data is enough to get the general shape of your results. Is the idea that with better memory you converge on steady (when it's true) more quickly, and so have less time to exhibit the gambler's fallacy?
Wonderful!
Quick clarification question that i think is already addressed in the post but I'm being lazy. How much of this depends on resource--in particular, memory--limitations? Seems to me like even with perfect memory, causal uncertainty and limited data is enough to get the general shape of your results. Is the idea that with better memory you converge on steady (when it's true) more quickly, and so have less time to exhibit the gambler's fallacy?