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Brad Skow's avatar

This sounds like an argument for not accepting letters of recommendation, and requiring GREs.

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AJPio's avatar

There seems to be some tension in the thought that both Normies and Presties can be equally qualified, and that the quality of Presties is more legible, and I think this shows that the category 'Normie' at ambiguous at some points from 'students at Normie institutions' to 'students at Normie institutions who are equally qualified'. Our priors are presumably formed by taking 'students' as the relevant reference class and assigning a low probability to any given student being sufficiently qualified. You're right that if I don't get as many markers about the Normies, then I don't come to think they're qualified even if they are. But from my perspective, it will also be true that, of most students at Normie institutions about whom I have similar evidence, they are, in fact, less qualified. It's only when we use 'Normie' to select 'Normie who is equally qualified' that we notice any unfairness. It's important to note that Presties only have more legible markers of competence because they are, as a group, in fact more qualified than students at normie institutions generally, and I worry that claims that Presties and Normies are equally qualified obscures this fact, one which is important to know because it affects other evidence we can acquire about quality, and the likelihood of various interventions being successful. Saying Normies are in fact just as qualified as Presties sounds like saying there are $100 bills lying on the ground - since everyone competes for Presties, I should be able to easily find some Normies, gather more evidence until their quality is equally legible, and hire the best qualified ones, leading to my institution becoming more presigious over time. If this doesn't happen, this is some evidence that either the Normies aren't as qualified, or that this extra legibility cannot be gained by hiring committees.

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