Fair points! Though I'm inclined to think the parentheticals are crucial. It's true that some polls show majority support for "mass deportations"; but I'd bet good money that if those deportations took the form that liberals are most worried about (ICE going door to door), then *that* would be incredibly unpopular and spark a backlash. Which presumably is why you had Homan (the border tsar) going around saying that it would be humane, focus first on criminals, etc. I have similar thoughts on tariffs.
So I totally agree that *some* version of those are much more likely to be implemented. But would also argue (though I admit I don't have the same charts to back it up—at least yet!) that the nightmarish versions of those that liberals are imagining would be similarly unpopular, so that (hopefully) we'll get watered-down, publicity-stunt-oriented versions of them. We'll see...
That strikes me as pretty plausible. I tend to think that if we were likely to get "crippling" tariffs--ones which would remain in place for a long time-- markets would be showing evidence of that which they currently don't seem to be doing.
While I agree with the general point, some of the details strike me as a bit slippery. The first two examples you give of extreme Trumpian policies are deportation and tariffs. The third is a national abortion ban. These are very different! Worrying about a national abortion ban is pretty unmoored from political reality. Trump has been explicit about wanting to leave abortion to the states, and like you point out it's very unpopular. (I imagine these are connected--he cares about his popularity.) But my sense is that deportation (what counts as mass?) and tariffs (what counts as crippling?) are both much more likely and much more popular.
Does it really matter what Trump voters think deep down inside, if what they think deep down inside has almost nothing to do with how they vote? Or to put it another way, if Trump does try mass deportations, and the effects are horrible, won’t Trump voters by and large just deny these horrible things have happened?
I think the final question is the crux. And of course, any simple generic will be too simple: different people will react differently to horrible effects of (say) mass deportations. Obviously some people will dismiss any consequences as justified. Obviously others won't. What I think the data about what Trump voters think should do is shift our estimates of the number of people who will react strongly negatively against Trumpian overreach—and shift our estimates of how much pushpack along the way to drastic actions the Trump administration will receive.
I agree that different voters will respond differently. But my guess would be that short of an epic economic disaster, the vast majority of Trump voters continue supporting him. I guess don’t find the data as comforting as you, because the Trump voters I know value never having to admit they’re wrong more than any policies. The reasons they support Trump are constantly shifting, or they simply insist things that happen never did. I hope they are atypical. But I think bad policies shift a few percentage points, short of 2008 style economic catastrophe.
Trump program is dementia level insane regarding both economic and moral values.
The trope that the U.S voters voted trump to reduce inflation is hilariously absurd considering doing extreme unscoped tariffs are the best way to speedrun an economic crisis and hyperinflation.
The greatest deportation in the history of the U.S without any care towards proper management of the human misery it will cause is an extreme moral failure but also highly potentiate the crisis caused by the tariffs as an exacerbation of economic and labour shortage.
Little/no disagreement here on the substance of the issues—I agree that 20% tariffs on all imports would probably be an economic disaster, and the greatest deportation in history would be both an economic and moral failing of epic proportions. The question is whether the plurality that voted for Trump—especially the large proportion of non-MAGA voters who switched between 2020 and 2024—want those extreme versions of the policies. I think the evidence pretty clearly suggests they don't—that's the point of the piece.
“Pluralistic Ignorance” is essentially the same phenomenon but ingroup/within the “tribe.” The inflated expectations of extremism, inside and outside of party lines, are unsurprising if everyone is virtue (and vice) signaling at that inflated level of severity.
Fair points! Though I'm inclined to think the parentheticals are crucial. It's true that some polls show majority support for "mass deportations"; but I'd bet good money that if those deportations took the form that liberals are most worried about (ICE going door to door), then *that* would be incredibly unpopular and spark a backlash. Which presumably is why you had Homan (the border tsar) going around saying that it would be humane, focus first on criminals, etc. I have similar thoughts on tariffs.
So I totally agree that *some* version of those are much more likely to be implemented. But would also argue (though I admit I don't have the same charts to back it up—at least yet!) that the nightmarish versions of those that liberals are imagining would be similarly unpopular, so that (hopefully) we'll get watered-down, publicity-stunt-oriented versions of them. We'll see...
That strikes me as pretty plausible. I tend to think that if we were likely to get "crippling" tariffs--ones which would remain in place for a long time-- markets would be showing evidence of that which they currently don't seem to be doing.
While I agree with the general point, some of the details strike me as a bit slippery. The first two examples you give of extreme Trumpian policies are deportation and tariffs. The third is a national abortion ban. These are very different! Worrying about a national abortion ban is pretty unmoored from political reality. Trump has been explicit about wanting to leave abortion to the states, and like you point out it's very unpopular. (I imagine these are connected--he cares about his popularity.) But my sense is that deportation (what counts as mass?) and tariffs (what counts as crippling?) are both much more likely and much more popular.
Does it really matter what Trump voters think deep down inside, if what they think deep down inside has almost nothing to do with how they vote? Or to put it another way, if Trump does try mass deportations, and the effects are horrible, won’t Trump voters by and large just deny these horrible things have happened?
I think the final question is the crux. And of course, any simple generic will be too simple: different people will react differently to horrible effects of (say) mass deportations. Obviously some people will dismiss any consequences as justified. Obviously others won't. What I think the data about what Trump voters think should do is shift our estimates of the number of people who will react strongly negatively against Trumpian overreach—and shift our estimates of how much pushpack along the way to drastic actions the Trump administration will receive.
But of course, we'll have to wait and see...
Thanks for responding to this.
I agree that different voters will respond differently. But my guess would be that short of an epic economic disaster, the vast majority of Trump voters continue supporting him. I guess don’t find the data as comforting as you, because the Trump voters I know value never having to admit they’re wrong more than any policies. The reasons they support Trump are constantly shifting, or they simply insist things that happen never did. I hope they are atypical. But I think bad policies shift a few percentage points, short of 2008 style economic catastrophe.
Trump program is dementia level insane regarding both economic and moral values.
The trope that the U.S voters voted trump to reduce inflation is hilariously absurd considering doing extreme unscoped tariffs are the best way to speedrun an economic crisis and hyperinflation.
The greatest deportation in the history of the U.S without any care towards proper management of the human misery it will cause is an extreme moral failure but also highly potentiate the crisis caused by the tariffs as an exacerbation of economic and labour shortage.
Little/no disagreement here on the substance of the issues—I agree that 20% tariffs on all imports would probably be an economic disaster, and the greatest deportation in history would be both an economic and moral failing of epic proportions. The question is whether the plurality that voted for Trump—especially the large proportion of non-MAGA voters who switched between 2020 and 2024—want those extreme versions of the policies. I think the evidence pretty clearly suggests they don't—that's the point of the piece.
“Pluralistic Ignorance” is essentially the same phenomenon but ingroup/within the “tribe.” The inflated expectations of extremism, inside and outside of party lines, are unsurprising if everyone is virtue (and vice) signaling at that inflated level of severity.